Miscellaneous Marginalia
Giants Brain Farts

A few stray thoughts about the Giants on a dismal Sunday morning in Beijing, China:

  • Buster Olney reports that the Giants remain the favorites to land Carlos Beltran, who would immediately become the team’s best offensive player if acquired. I remain skeptical. The Mets have indicated that they’d rather swallow the remaining millions on Beltran’s contract in order to land a top prospect; the Giants, alas, would rather pay the outfielder than give up anyone good. Who are the untouchables in the Giants system? Brandon Belt, certainly, but he’s basically a major league player now. Zack Wheeler, probably. Gary Brown? Most likely. Beyond those three, the Giants set of prospects probably aren’t particularly enticing to an opposing team.
  • Then there’s the issue of the rotation. When Jonathan Sanchez returns, the Giants will have six viable starters. Should the Giants trade him now? He’d be their most enticing trade bait- not many teams would refuse to consider adding a solid middle of the rotation starter with strikeout stuff. The more Ryan Vogelsong pitches the clearer it becomes that he’s no mirage. His peripheral numbers largely back up his success, if not his microscopic ERA. 
  • Aubrey Huff doesn’t seem like he’s going to figure out this season, and despite his popularity and high contract it wouldn’t surprise me if he became something of a bench option. Brandon Belt should be playing every day..he won’t learn to hit without getting a lot of at bats, and in any case he almost certainly won’t be as bad as Huff. 
Dodgers File for Bankruptcy

This Jayson Stark column explains why it’s so shocking to long-term fans of baseball. I’m just old enough to remember when the Dodgers were one of the league’s classiest organizations; a team that never fired their manager, didn’t need a new stadium, and produced winning team after winning team around a formula of good pitching. 

Ironically, the Frank McCourt ownership hasn’t depleted the team on the field as much as one might think. The Dodgers have been to the playoffs four times in McCourt’s seven years as owner, though they have failed to make it to the World Series since 1988. 

Could this be an opening for Mark Cuban? The stodgy owner’s club in MLB has always resisted Cuban, fearing that his flamboyance would embarrass the league. But now the far bigger risk is that an owner will simply not have the means to own a club, a situation we now see in Los Angeles. Of all the things to worry about with Cuban, his wealth isn’t one of them. Besides- in my lifetime baseball’s owners have tolerated an outright racist (Marge Schott) and a man who hired someone to hustle one of his players (George Steinbrenner).

As a Giants fan I would fear that Cuban would revitalize the Dodgers, allowing them to pump their payroll way up and establish themselves as a power in the NL West. But even Giants fans have to wince at the spectacle that is Frank McCourt, his ex-wife, and their disastrous reign over one of the game’s prouder franchises.

Trade Sanchez?

I think the Giants should package Jonathan Sanchez with a couple of minor leaguers and acquire Jose Reyes. Here’s why.

- The Giants will soon be faced with the prospect of spending a lot of money on their young pitchers. Rumor has it that the Giants can only afford Lincecum and Cain, in which case Sanchez will soon be able to test free agency. 

- While he’s erratic and wild, Sanchez has put up consistently good numbers for two and a half years now. An enterprising pitching coach might think he’s just the man to turn the lefty into the next Big Unit. 

- Since Ryan Vogelsong is pitching so well and seems to be genuinely this good, the Giants will have six viable starters as soon as Barry Zito returns from the disabled list. Trading Sanchez won’t hurt the major league team as much as doing so would have last season.

- Reyes is one of the best players in the game and would instantly upgrade the Giants at a position where they’ve been putrid all season. Plus, at age 29 he is still young enough to warrant consideration for a long-term contract. A team comprised of Reyes, Posey, Sandoval, Belt, and others suddenly looks pretty OK.

- The Mets need pitchers and can afford Sanchez. While he may provoke shudders from fans reminded of Oliver Perez, Sanchez will slot nicely into the Mets rotation.

- And if the Marlins are desperate to be rid of Hanley Ramirez, then that’s who the Giants should target :)

Baseball’s Realignment

Baseball’s new alignment program (discussed here by Buster Olney- Insider subscription required) seems to have at least a passing chance of implementation. I don’t know much about the plan, but the basics are these:

  • One team-either the Astros or the Marlins- would move from the National League to the American League, creating 15 teams in each league
  • Because each league would have an odd number of teams, at least one interleague game would have to be played every day.
  • Divisions would be abolished, so the top five teams in each league would qualify for the playoffs. 

The advantages of this realignment are these: it would ensure that the best teams make the playoffs, rather than teams that happen to play in an easy division. It would also ensure that teams would face an equally challenging schedule each season. These changes are good for the game.

However, I don’t know how comfortable I’d be with having interleague play throughout the season. I like interleague play as much as the next fan, but something would seem wrong if the Giants’ season depended on a late September series against, say, the Mariners. Maybe this is curmudgeonly of me, but it might take some of fun out of the pennant races if teams aren’t playing head-to-head games against their rivals.

Also, I’d be loath to support any realignment plan that didn’t include a reduction in the number of regular-season games each team plays. The season is long enough even with the current playoff structure, and as we’ve seen this year far too many games in April are washed away by poor weather. 

So, here would be my proposal. In exchange for having an odd-number of teams in each league, let’s shorten the season to 144 games. Put fifteen teams in each league and let the best four make the playoffs. Make each playoff series a best-of-seven. Do away with the unnecessary media-driven ‘days off’ during the postseason. Have the season start in mid-April and end in mid-October. 

That arrangement, I think, would make the game better. 

Give LeBron a break

Yes, “The Decision” was moronic. Yes, his “your life sucks” speech was a bit much. But this hatred of LeBron James for leaving the Cavaliers and the accompanying schadenfreude for Miami’s loss in the NBA Finals is already tired. Can you really blame him- I mean really- for preferring to play among better players in Miami than going at it alone in Cleveland simply because the Cavaliers happened to draft him? 

But good for the Mavs. Good for Dirk, good for Jason Kidd, good for Mark Cuban. They paid their dues, and they deserved it. 

Now finally, at long last, the NBA season is over. 

Sabean Misspoke

Giants GM Brian Sabean, referring to the play that ended Buster Posey’s season:

If I never hear from Cousins again or he never plays another game in the big leagues, I think we’ll all be happy. He chose to be a hero in my mind, and if that’s his flash of fame, that’s as good as it’s going to get, pal. We’ll have a long memory. Believe me, we’ve talked to (Mike) Matheny about how this game works. You can’t be that out-and-out overly aggressive. I’ll put it as politically as I can state it: There’s no love lost and there shouldn’t be.

This is out of line. Cousins’ hit was unnecessary, it shouldn’t be ‘part of the game’, and the league should damn well do something about it, but accusing the player of malice goes too far. Cousins’ contrition after the fact seemed sincere, and while he shouldn’t be absolved from blame Sabean’s remarks are unnecessarily harsh and make the Giants look petty. It wouldn’t surprise me to hear an apology on Sabean’s part in the next couple of days.

The Giants Without Posey

The Buster Posey injury is about the worst thing that could have happened to the Giants this year. Not only is he their best position player, but he also plays a position most difficult to find good offensive talent. The drop-of between Posey and a Eli Whiteside/Chris Stewart platoon may not be more than four wins over the rest of the season, but in what appears to be a fairly tight division four wins could mean all the difference in the world.

For the Giants, the worst fear of Posey’s injury is that his legs will never return to their former strength. Interviewed by the local media, trainer Dave Groeschner seemed optimistic that Posey will make a full recovery in time for next season. 

Should Posey be moved? Unlike, say, Joe Mauer, Posey isn’t especially big for his position. His injury seemed more like a freak accident than a result from his size or style of play. For his part, Posey has said that he’d like to continue catching. As for where else he’d go, the usual catcher’s refuge of first base will be occupied by Brandon Belt for the foreseeable future while third is the domain of Pablo Sandoval. Posey is a good enough athlete that he could probably play a competent left field, but his bat is so much more valuable as a catcher. 

My sense is that Posey will simply come back in the spring of next year and play catcher as before, and that the Giants can only hope for the best. 

Should the Giants get Jose Reyes?

Does it make sense for the Giants to acquire Jose Reyes in a trade? Yes, it does, but there are some caveats.

For one, it is way too early for the Mets to consider trading him. If they have another bad month in May, then the organization might consider throwing in the towel and seeing what they can get for their shortstop. But the smart move is to wait until the trade deadline to maximize their leverage, at which point other teams needing a SS (Boston?) would jack up the Mets asking price.

But if the Mets do decide to trade Reyes in the next month, the Giants should certainly consider pouncing. The baseball season is long, and typically I’m not inclined to give up on veteran players this early in the season. But Miguel Tejada looks bad, at both the plate and in the field. Hell- he’s 37. A much more celebrated 37 year-old shortstop I can think of also looks cooked, and the list of effective everyday shortstops of that age or higher is short. I think that before long the Giants will have to cut their losses and either release Tejada or relegate him to strict backup duty.

Reyes, when healthy as he appears now, is an excellent player likely to put up something in the neighborhood of 5 wins in a season. As a conservative estimate, the difference between a Jose Reyes and a Miguel Tejada at SS for the rest of the season might be worth 3 wins to the Giants, which as you will remember is greater than the difference between the Giants and second-place Padres last season. 

What will Reyes cost? He earns $11 million and will be a free agent at season’s end. Given their financial difficulties the Mets would probably expect whichever team acquires Reyes to assume his entire salary. Even with that in mind, the Mets will also want significant talent in return. Do the Giants have that talent on hand to give the Mets?

Assuming that everyone on the major league roster plus Brandon Belt is untouchable, the Giants have little left in the cupboard. Zack Wheeler is their best pitching prospect, so I would imagine any proposal would have to start with him. The Giants may also be forced to part with some of their lower-level prospects as well. I think it goes without saying that the Giants’ system would be gutted by a trade for a player of Reyes’ caliber.

Then comes the issue of free agency. The Giants don’t really have any long-term options at shortstop waiting in the minors so would presumably be interested in signing Reyes. But can they afford him? Remember, the Giants are going to either sign Tim Lincecum to a significant contract extension or will be forced to pay him north of $20 million in arbitration. Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez will soon become very expensive as well. And lest we forget, Barry Zito and Aaron Rowand still eat up a combined $30 million. Could the Giants afford to pay Reyes, still surprisingly young at 28, $15 million a season over the next five or six? Tough to say.

I’d love to have Reyes, but it looks like the Giants likely won’t be in position to get him. Perhaps a cheaper shorstop will be made available (J.J. Hardy or someone) but otherwise we may be stuck with the carcass of Tejada and the Fontenots of the world.

Aces

Major League Baseball Trade Rumors founder Tim Dierkes compiles a list of aces: that is, true No. 1 starters. His list:

Adam Wainwright

Roy Halladay

Cole Hamels

Roy Oswalt

Cliff Lee

C.C. Sabathia

Dan Haren

Jered Weaver

Josh Johnson

Justin Verlander

Felix Hernandez

Jon Lester

David Price

Tim Lincecum

Chris Carpenter

Clayton Kershaw

Matt Cain

Tommy Hanson

His borderline group:

John Danks
Yovani Gallardo
Brett Anderson
Ricky Romero
Zack Greinke
Ubaldo Jimenez
Francisco Liriano
Trevor Cahill

My sense is that the first list is way too long. I love Matt Cain, but he’s not really an ace- more like a solid No. 2 starter. Ditto Tommy Hanson. Likewise, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt aren’t aces in the true sense of the word, though Halladay and Lee certainly are. I’d also demote Dan Haren but keep Jered Weaver. Chris Carpenter is borderline, but given his track record I’ll call him an ace. From the bottom group, I’d promote Ubaldo and keep the rest down. So, here’s my list:

PHI-Halladay
PHI-Lee
STL- Wainwright
STL- Carpenter
LAA- Weaver
SFG- Lincecum
LAD- Kershaw
COL- Jimenez
FLA- Johnson
SEA- Hernandez
NYY- Sabathia
BOS- Lester
TBR- Price

That’s thirteen pitchers from eleven teams. Of these, the handful I’d put in the conversation for best in the game include Halladay, Lee, Lincecum, Hernandez, and maybe Sabathia. 

A Miracle..

..that the Giants finished April at .500. Considering:

  • Their best offensive player from last year, Aubrey Huff, has played terribly all year.
  • Their leadoff hitter and sparkplug Andres Torres has missed half the month
  • They’ve gotten next to nothing from Cody Ross
  • Miguel Tejada has played so poorly on both sides of the ball that I’ll be surprised if they don’t try to replace him mid-season
  • Madison Bumgarner has had only one good start in his first five
  • Brian Wilson has been extremely erratic.

All this would seem to augur well for the rest of the season, but the injury to Pablo Sandoval hurts. A lot. Panda was clearly back to his old self with the bat and was hitting better than anyone on the team, and now he will be on the shelf until mid-June. Even then, there are whispers that players don’t recover their power from a broken hamate injury until a year later. Ouch.

Due to the blistering start by the Rockies the Giants do find themselves 4 and a half games back already. The Rockies were a streaky club last year and are bound to hit a rough patch at some point. Then again, their record is remarkable considering how poorly both Carlos Gonzalez and Ubaldo Jimenez have played. If those two recover, the Giants may have to content themselves with playing for the Wild Card.

In the end, the season is still brand new and there’s no reason to worry too much. But it is interesting how the Giants have had more injury problems already than they did all of last year. I bristle at suggests the Giants were lucky last year, but in one important aspect they were: they stayed remarkably healthy, with only the injury to DeRosa. No matter how good their training staff may be, the law of averages dictates that their luck won’t hold. We’ve already begun seeing that, too, with the Sandoval injury.